PRED affiliate program review: 60% of trading fees for six months, and a country list its own terms contradict
PRED pays publishers 60% of trading fees for six months, then 20% to month 24, from $100 a month. Its terms ban the UK traffic its own blog says it serves.
PRED pays publishers 60% of the trading fees a referred trader generates for six months, then 20% until the end of month 24, and nothing after that, according to its partner page, read on 27 September 2026. The same page publishes the attribution rule (last click, 30 days), the payment floor ($100) and the payment calendar (monthly, within 30 days of month end), which is more than most prediction markets put in writing. The harder findings are elsewhere. The only contract a publisher accepts at signup is the platform’s general terms of use, dated 10 December 2025, which name no company, choose Panama law, and ban users in the United Kingdom and France, two markets PRED’s own blog says it serves. The partner page lists only the United States, India and sanctioned countries as closed. Our score is 6/10.
Key points
- 60% of trading fees in months 1 to 6, 20% in months 7 to 24, 0% afterwards, on “commissionable revenue, not traded volume”, per the partner page. A published, phased schedule, not an “up to” figure and not a lifetime one.
- Last valid click before registration, 30-day window. Deep links, sub-IDs and postbacks are offered; nothing is published about existing accounts, cross-device attribution or self-referral.
- $100 minimum, calculated monthly, paid within 30 days of month end; smaller balances roll over. Payout currency, chain and fees are not published anywhere we could find.
- The fee base is small and price-dependent. Takers pay 2.5% × price × (1 − price) per share, makers pay nothing, and referred accounts get 20% off, per the fee documentation and PRED’s 27 August release. At a 50¢ price that is 1% of taker volume after the discount, so $1,000 traded pays a publisher $6.00 in the first six months.
- No company is named and the country lists disagree. The terms call the operator simply “PRED”, are governed by Panama law and prohibit users in the US, UK, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand and Taiwan. The partner page closes only the US, India and sanctioned countries, and PRED’s own blog of 16 September 2026 says “UK and EU served”.
Who runs the program
PRED is a peer-to-peer sports prediction exchange on Base. Traders buy and sell yes/no contracts on match outcomes through an order book, positions are denominated in USDC, and PRED runs the venue rather than taking the other side. It opened public access on 4 June 2026, in time for the FIFA World Cup, after a private beta that its launch release describes as 300-plus invited users and $5 million of notional volume. The release is datelined Panama City. Its Accel portfolio page names the founders as Amit Mahensaria, Piyush Mahensaria and Arpit Nik and dates Accel’s first investment to 2025; Amit Mahensaria is quoted as CEO and co-founder in PRED’s 27 August 2026 release. That release also names Coinbase Ventures and Reverie as backers, which we did not check beyond PRED’s own statement.
The contract is less specific. Clause 1.4 of the terms of use defines the operator as “PRED”, “the singular and sole legal entity responsible for the development, maintenance, and provision of the App”, with no company suffix, registration number or address. The privacy notice, dated the same day, uses the same bare name and says the services “are made available by us from the Republic of Panama”. Panama law governs both documents. A service location and a governing law are not an incorporation record, and we could not find one; treat the paying party as unidentified until an approved offer names it.
The affiliate side runs on Scaleo. The application form asks for name, email, company and traffic sources, and requires the applicant to accept the same general terms and privacy notice that traders accept; there is no separate affiliate agreement at that point. Scaleo announced the partnership on 14 July 2026 as the tracking and partner-portal provider. It is a vendor, not the party that owes the commission.
On licensing, nothing is claimed and nothing was found. PRED is not in the CFTC’s list of designated contract markets, and its own documents exclude the United States; no regulator, licence or registration is cited on the partner page, in the terms or in the releases.
Commission structure
The partner page publishes one schedule, with no tiers and no volume hurdle:
| Referred trader’s period | Publisher share of trading fees |
|---|---|
| Months 1 to 6 | 60% |
| Months 7 to 24 | 20% |
| After month 24 | 0%, “no further share” |
The page says the share is “calculated monthly on commissionable revenue” and “paid on commissionable revenue, not traded volume”, and its worked example makes the point that “makers pay no fee, so only taker fills generate commission”. What starts the clock is not on the page. PRED’s own blog post of 16 September 2026 fills the gap: the six months run “after their first qualifying deposit”, and because the share is of fees rather than of net revenue, “no month can go negative”. Both statements come from PRED, not from a contract, and “qualifying deposit” is not defined anywhere public.
The fee base is what decides the money. PRED’s fee documentation charges takers only, at 0.025 × shares × price × (1 − price); makers pay nothing, and there is no fee to place, cancel or amend an order or to redeem winning shares. As a share of what the taker spends, that is 2.5% × (1 − price): the fee peaks in dollar terms at 50¢ and falls to almost nothing at either end of the book. On a buy the fee is deducted in shares, on a sell in USDC, and reporting shows both in USDC. The page still carries “Launching Soon” in its heading, but PRED’s 27 August release says the fees are live after a zero-fee beta and World Cup, and puts the average taker rate at about 1%.
| Price per share | Taker fee on 100 shares | Fee as % of trade value |
|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | $0.225 | 2.25% |
| 30¢ | $0.525 | 1.75% |
| 50¢ | $0.625 | 1.25% |
| 70¢ | $0.525 | 0.75% |
| 90¢ | $0.225 | 0.25% |
Referred accounts pay less. The partner page promises “20% off for your audience”, applied permanently to anyone arriving through the link, and the August release says the same for accounts opened with a referral code. So the publisher’s base is 80% of the schedule above. Our arithmetic, assuming the whole discounted fee is commissionable: a referred taker buying at 50¢ pays 1.0% of trade value, so $1,000 of taker volume yields $10 in fees, $6.00 to the publisher in months 1 to 6 and $2.00 in months 7 to 24. At 90¢ or 10¢ the same $1,000 yields $2 in fees and $1.20, then $0.40. Volume from a trader who rests orders on the book yields nothing.
The partner page’s own example uses a flat “0.5%” fee, so “$1,000 of volume” pays “$3.00”, and notes that “0.5% is the launch rate”. It ignores the referral discount and does not match the published formula. Treat it as an illustration written before the fee schedule went live, and budget from the formula.
Not published: a definition of “commissionable revenue” (rebates, reversals and maker rewards are not mentioned), any cap, any CPA, hybrid or sub-affiliate offer, and any negative-carryover clause. Scaleo’s platform supports all of those models; nothing shows PRED offers them.
Attribution and cookies
The rule on the partner page is “last valid click before registration, 30 day window”. That is acquisition attribution only; how long the publisher earns on the account is set separately by the 24-month schedule, and there is no lifetime promise. Every partner gets a tracking link with sub-ID support, registrations and “qualified traders” appear in the dashboard, and postbacks are available.
Nothing is published on what a “qualified trader” is, on existing accounts that later click a link, on cross-device matching, on a second link overriding the first, or on self-referral; the general terms’ ban on fictitious transactions and wash trading (clause 8.2) is the only relevant rule. Clause 8.4 lets PRED demand identity, residence and source-of-funds documents from any user “at any time” and treats a failure to comply as a material breach, so a referred account that opened with an email address can still be excluded later, and with it the commission.
Payouts
The partner page states three payment terms: calculated monthly, a $100 minimum that “rolls over below the threshold”, and payment “within 30 days of month end”. A publisher whose balance crosses $100 in September should therefore see money by the end of October, subject to whatever validation the accepted offer adds. Nothing else about payment is published: not the currency, the chain or bank route, transfer fees, invoicing, a hold period or a clawback rule. The product settles in USDC on Base, but that is a fact about traders, not a promise to publishers.
Two things on the page look like payment terms and are not: the FAQ’s “How long does a payout take once a match ends?” is about market settlement (“under four minutes”), and the “6% yield” on balances is a trader benefit. On the contract side, clause 8.5 lets PRED bar a user from “any past, current, or future reward, incentive, or distribution programs” after an investigation; whether an affiliate’s accrued balance counts is not addressed. Treat dashboard earnings as provisional until the first transfer lands.
The terms that bite
The only document a publisher agrees to is the platform’s terms of use, “Last updated: 10th Dec, 2025”, with no affiliate version. Its country list does not match the recruitment material, and PRED’s own blog contradicts both:
| Document | Countries named |
|---|---|
| Partner page (27 Sep 2026) | Closed: United States, India, sanctioned jurisdictions. “Everywhere else, market by market”, to be confirmed with the partner manager |
| Launch release (4 Jun 2026) | “Pred does not operate in India, Singapore, the United States, or OFAC-sanctioned countries” |
| Terms of use, clause 8.3 (10 Dec 2025) | Restricted: United States, United Kingdom, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, Taiwan, plus US-sanctioned territories including Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk; applies to anyone “residing in, a citizen of, organized in, or located in” them |
| PRED blog (16 Sep 2026) | “Pred serves the UK and the EU and does not accept customers from the US or India” |
For a football publisher, the UK and France are not edge cases; they are the audience. The contract says both are prohibited, by citizenship as well as location, while the marketing says UK traffic is welcome and the partner page says nothing about either. India is closed in the marketing but absent from the contract’s list. We would not send a click into that gap without a written country schedule from the partner manager, and we would keep it, because clause 1.7 lets PRED change the terms “without prior specific notification”, with the “Last Updated” date as the only notice and continued use as acceptance. Nothing in the terms protects accrued commission from a later change.
The rest of the general contract, read as an affiliate would:
- Termination for any reason. Clause 14.1 lets PRED “modify, suspend, or disable your access”, in whole or in part, “for any reason whatsoever”, with or without notice. There is no clause saying commission on an already-referred trader survives.
- Commercial use needs written consent. Clause 5.2 licenses the site for “personal, non-commercial use” only, and clause 8.2 bans “unauthorized commercial exploitation” without written consent. An approved publisher should get the scope of permitted promotion, creative use and paid search in writing, since the public page says nothing about brand bidding, incentivised traffic or email.
- Liability capped at $100. Clause 7.2 limits PRED’s total liability to the lesser of what the user paid PRED in the previous 12 months and US$100, while clauses 6.1 and 6.2 make the user indemnify PRED and let PRED control the defence.
- Panama, then arbitration. Clauses 12.1 to 12.3: Panama law, a mandatory negotiation period (30 days to respond, up to 60 to resolve), then binding arbitration before a single arbitrator in Panama, with class actions waived. Clause 13.2 lets PRED assign the contract “without restriction and without prior notice”.
- 18+ only. The partner page requires age-gated promotion and bans channels “with a significant under-18 audience”. That is the only promotional rule published.
What affiliates report
Almost nothing, yet. Trustpilot has no page for pred.app. The r/BASE founder AMA of 9 June 2026 covers liquidity, security and regulation from the trader’s side and says nothing about partner payments. Scaleo’s announcement confirms the tracking relationship but is a supplier’s post. We found no dated report of a payment received and no report of a payment withheld, on the affiliate forums or elsewhere, and we make no claim in either direction. The program has existed in public for about ten weeks; the first affiliates to pass $100 in September will be the first evidence, in late October.
PRED against the alternatives
Prediction-market programs mostly pay builders and integrators, not publishers with a link, so like-for-like rows are scarce. The pages below were read on 25 and 27 September 2026.
| Program | Published rate and base | Attribution and duration | Minimum and timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| PRED partners | 60% of trading fees for 6 months, then 20% to month 24 | Last click, 30 days; earnings stop after month 24 | $100; monthly, within 30 days of month end; currency not published |
| Myriad builders | Negotiated share, at most the market’s distributor fee, “typically 1%” of the trade; buys only | Builder code on each eligible buy; no duration promise | $500; first Monday of the month; paid to the Myriad account or a whitelisted wallet |
| Limitless affiliates | None published; “we don’t run a one-size-fits-all rate card” | Link and dashboard; “for as long as they keep trading” | Not stated |
| Polymarket builder fees | Builder sets it: 0% default, up to 1% taker and 0.5% maker on routed orders | Builder code in the signed order, on-chain | Collected fees go to the builder-profile wallet; no minimum or cadence published |
PRED is the only one of the four that publishes a percentage, a window and a payment calendar for a plain referral link. Myriad publishes eligibility and a calendar but not the rate; our Myriad affiliate program review has the detail. Limitless negotiates per creator. Polymarket’s builder program is a fee layer for an application, not a share of platform revenue. What PRED lacks against all three is a named counterparty and a country list that agrees with itself. For the fee-share model on exchanges, where lifetime attribution is common, see our crypto exchange affiliate programs comparison; for the marketing channels open to a prediction market itself, see our guide to promoting a prediction market website. Limitless does publish a ladder for plain accounts, 10–40% of taker fees paid daily from $1, keyed to the referrer’s own volume rather than the audience’s; see our Limitless affiliate program review.
Verdict
6/10. Credit for publishing what most prediction markets leave to a partner manager: a phased percentage, the attribution rule, the payment floor and calendar, a documented fee formula, a permanent 20% discount for referred traders, and an explicit US exclusion. Our rubric reserves 8 and above for lifetime attribution, a minimum of $50 or less, no negative carryover and a clean payment record; PRED’s earning period ends at month 24, its floor is $100, the no-carryover statement is a blog line rather than a clause, and there is no payment record yet in either direction. It stays above 5 because the rates are public, the program is a real publisher scheme rather than a share link, and no payout complaint exists.
What keeps it from 7: no legal entity anywhere in the documents, a contract that bans the UK and France while the marketing invites them, payout currency and method unpublished, and general terms that allow termination and rule changes without notice and without any protection for accrued commission. Before spending on acquisition we would want a signed offer that names the paying company, lists permitted countries, defines “qualifying deposit” and “commissionable revenue”, states the payout asset and route, and says what happens to earned commission when the account is closed. The percentage is clear. The obligation behind it is not yet.
FAQ
What is the PRED affiliate commission?
60% of the trading fees a referred trader pays in months 1 to 6, 20% in months 7 to 24, and nothing after that, per the partner page. Only taker fees count; makers pay no fee on PRED, so a referred trader who rests orders on the book earns the publisher nothing.
When and how does PRED pay affiliates?
Commission is calculated monthly and paid within 30 days of month end once the balance reaches $100; smaller balances roll over. The payout currency, chain and any fees are not published. The product settles trades in USDC on Base, but nothing says commission is paid the same way.
Is the PRED affiliate program legit?
The product is live, Accel confirms its investment on its own site, the partner terms are public and the tracking runs on Scaleo. What is missing is a named legal entity, any licence or registration, and any public record of a commission being paid. We found no complaints either. Treat it as an early program with published rates and an unverified counterparty.
What is the difference between PRED referrals and the affiliate program?
The trading app advertises “Earn 40% of all fees paid by referrals” to every account holder; that is the in-app referral scheme. The publisher program at affiliate.pred.app requires an application, reviewed within two business days, and pays the 60%/20% schedule through a Scaleo dashboard. PRED’s blog describes them as separate; nothing published says the two can be combined on the same trader.
How long is the PRED affiliate cookie?
30 days, last valid click before registration. That window decides who gets the trader. The 24-month schedule decides how long the publisher earns on them, and it is not lifetime.
Can I send UK or US traffic to PRED?
Not the US: it is closed on the partner page, in the launch release and in the terms. The UK is the problem case. Clause 8.3 of the terms of use lists the United Kingdom and France as restricted jurisdictions, while PRED’s blog of 16 September 2026 says it serves the UK and the EU and the partner page names neither. Until PRED reconciles the documents in writing, we would treat UK and French traffic as ineligible.
adbench.io does not promote gambling or trading; this article is about the affiliate contract. adbench.io earns nothing from the programs discussed here. We do not use referral links.